EIA Releases Annual Energy Outlook

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published the 2012 edition of its Annual Energy Outlook, providing EIA’s latest forecasts of energy prices and industry trends through 2035. The report finds technological change and regulatory policy will play key roles in shaping the nation’s energy future.

Key results highlighted in AEO2012 include continued modest growth in demand for energy over the next 25 years and increased domestic crude oil and natural gas production, largely driven by rising production from tight oil and shale resources. As a result, U.S. reliance on imported oil is reduced; domestic production of natural gas exceeds consumption, allowing for net exports; a growing share of U.S. electric power generation is met with natural gas and renewables; and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level from 2010 to 2035, even in the absence of new Federal policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

AEO2012’s analysis examines the impact of the Utility MATS rule and Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) on coal-fired power plant retirements by assuming the current regulatory state holds. The EIA found that cumulative retirements through 2035 could range from 34 to 70 gigawatts (GW) depending on assumptions regarding natural gas prices, economic growth, and electricity demand.

The report predicts that generation from renewables will grow at a steady rate of 2.3 percent through 2035, supported primarily by the enforcement of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) now in place in thirty states, including Wisconsin.

Speaking on AEO2012 and the EIA generally, new EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said he hopes to make EIA's statistical analyses “more timely, and punchier and more market relevant.”

This post was authored by GLLF staff attorney Emily Kelchen.